Biden has endorsed Kamala Harris as the US presidential candidacy. What will happen next?
As the US president steps down due to age concerns, Democrats must pick a new candidate for the November election.
With fewer than four months till election day, Democrats are left with unresolved issues about how to proceed following US President Joe Biden’s resignation from the 2024presidential contest.
Biden resigned on Sunday after weeks of pressure from other Democrats over a catastrophic debate performance against former President Donald Trump in June.
Analysts believe that if Democrats are to defeat Trump, they must unite behind a new contender and re-energize their support. Vice President Kamala Harris is the early choice to succeed Biden, especially after receiving the president’s backing. Biden also encouraged people to give to Harris’ campaign.
Still, Biden’s choice to resign is unparalleled in contemporary American politics. “We’re in uncharted territory here,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election-related newsletter produced by the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
In the following days, Harris might face challenges for the Democratic candidacy.
The new nominee will be picked at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next month, where over 4,000 party leaders and activists, known as delegates, will vote.
Following the primaries, several parties have had contested conventions to choose their candidates. In reality, this happened regularly until the present primary system was implemented in 1972, giving voters more influence in the process.
However, the Democrats’ current predicament is different.
Biden is the only presumptive nominee of a major party to withdraw from the contest after the primaries, despite winning virtually all committed delegates.
The president campaigned in the primaries with no significant rivals, and Democratic officials stated early on that Biden, as the incumbent, would be the probable choice.
“I don’t believe there’s any good recent precedence for that. It wasn’t unusual a half-century or more ago to go into the convention not knowing who the nominee would be,” Kondik, who talked with Al Jazeera earlier this week, said.
“But since then, we haven’t had this sort of situation where somebody dominates the primary season – but then steps aside later, in advance of the convention.”
With no historical precedent to follow, commentators believe Democrats will have to improvise within their criteria when selecting their next nominee.
While the shift carries dangers, a fresh candidate might galvanize Democratic voters who had previously accepted the difficult task of opposing Trump at a time when his advantage over Biden has grown in crucial states.
Before pulling out, Biden was scheduled to face Republican nominee Donald Trump for the second time in a row.
According to Meena Bose, a professor of political science at Hofstra University, while changing candidates so close to the election is dangerous, a shake-up at the top of the Democratic ticket may improve the party’s chances.
“A late change is not ideal, but may generate more hope than no change at all, or, at the very least, may potentially be useful down the road, if not in the presidential race,” Bose said.
Presidential endorsement
Shortly after announcing his withdrawal from the contest, Biden backed Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed him at the top of the Democratic Party ticket.
Kondik believes Biden’s endorsement makes a significant impact. The president is supported by an overwhelming majority of delegates. And, while they are not required to support Harris, Biden’s endorsement might tilt the scales in her favor. In the hours following Biden’s announcement, a flood of leading Democrats publicly endorsed Harris, including Senator Elizabeth Warren and Democratic Party state leaders, as well as governors seen as potential nomination rivals, such as California’s Gavin Newsom and Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro.
The vice president has national name recognition and can take over the Biden-Harris campaign infrastructure.
Kondik stated that selecting Harris was the “path of least resistance” for Democrats. Bose agreed, stating that Harris was the most “logical choice” to achieve a “seamless transition”.
“There is not a lot of time for an open competition for delegate support,” she told Al Jazeera.
Prior to Biden’s announcement, Hans Noel, a professor at Georgetown University’s Department of Government, predicted Harris would take up the nomination.
“The vice presidential candidate does not automatically become the presidential candidate, but I think a lot of voters would sort of expect that,” Noel told Al Jazeera via email.
“Given her situation, there are several reasons why she should not seek help from someone else. She has a lot of support in the party, but choosing someone else would appear to be passing over a Black woman, which would not sit well with many members of the party.”
According to the Democratic National Committee’s regulations, delegates can suggest a new party nominee provided they gather the signatures of 300 fellow delegates, as well as the nominated candidate’s confirmation signature. However, the party will most likely rally around Harris to portray a united front.
Lingering questions
The Democratic Party now faces the anxiety-inducing question of how voters will respond to Biden’s departure from the presidential race, a considerable shake-up so close to the election.
US presidential campaigns require massive investments of cash and manpower to reach people across the country. Some start as early as two years in advance. Launching a campaign from scratch will not be easy.
“Campaigns take huge amounts of infrastructure, money [and] messaging to get through to the voters that we know are most undecided,” said Casey Burgat, head of the legislative affairs department at George Washington University.
Burgat said that addressing indecisive voters is likewise labor-intensive: “You should strike them multiple times. You need people knocking on doors. There’s just a massive infrastructure to be constructed.”
The fate of Biden’s campaign finances is likewise questionable. With no precedence for the current circumstances, speculation has centered on the fate of Biden’s war chest.
Election expenditure in the United States, for example, may reach millions, if not billions, of dollars.
However, Burgat observed that Harris has fewer campaign financing limitations because she is already Biden’s vice president and has contributed to his fundraising efforts.
Challenges and opportunities
However, although Biden’s departure carries costs, it also creates opportunity. Many voters were unimpressed with the idea of an election between Biden and Trump.
Prior to Biden’s declaration, a recent survey by The Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research revealed that 65 percent of Democrats thought he should leave the race.
Only three out of ten people believed he had the mental acuity to perform successfully as president.
Burgat believes that a fresh, younger candidate might energise the party and provide much-needed support.
“The most common response we’ve received is, ‘I can’t believe these are our two options.'” People have been asking how, in a country of 350 million people, their options have been narrowed to these two really unpopular politicians,” he remarked.
Democrats in difficult congressional districts were especially concerned that Biden’s unpopularity would hinder candidates up and down the ballot, decreasing their prospects in elections that may otherwise be won.
Recent polls indicated a worrying trend in that direction. According to the Wall Street Journal, a study conducted by Blue Rose Research found that more than half of swing voters felt Democrats were lying about Biden’s mental competence.
According to the study, over 30% of those who favored Biden in 2020 had this sentiment as well.
Democrats may be concerned that downplaying Biden’s age could erode their trust with voters and harm the party’s long-term prospects. According to Burgat, this added to the pressure that influenced Biden’s choice.
“Democrats will be able to say, and rightfully so, that things change when there are widespread concerns about a candidate,” Burgat told reporters. “They can make the case that this job – this election – is too important to ignore those concerns.”
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